A neutral‐metabolic theory of latitudinal biodiversity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Latitudinal gradients of species richness represent Earth's first‐order biodiversity pattern. Most species groups display a near‐monotonic decline in richness from the equator to the poles, yet there exists little mechanistic theory to derive such patterns from first principles. Here we integrate two key advances – neutral theory and the metabolic theory of ecology – to reconstruct global species richness gradients and test underlying causes. Location Simulated global meta‐community. Methods We constructed a spatially explicit global meta‐community with constant per capita rates of disturbance, speciation and dispersal. No gradient emerged in this neutral base model. Focusing on the oceans as a model system, we added a water temperature gradient of 0–30°C that independently affected rates of community turnover and speciation based on established metabolic scaling laws. We also added a gradient in habitat area that roughly parallels the observed decrease in ocean area from tropical to polar waters. Results Thermal effects on the community turnover rate caused a transient latitudinal gradient that ultimately disappeared. Thermal effects on speciation produced a dynamically stable but relatively weak gradient. Increasing habitat area towards the equator in combination with thermal effects on speciation rate produced a more realistic gradient that emerged from the combined effects of species–area and species–energy theory. Main conclusions This reasonably simple model provides a platform to explore support for processes underpinning large‐scale biodiversity gradients, and the ability of prominent ecological theories, independently or in combination, to capture them.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".