Economic Analysis of Pneumococcal Vaccination for Elderly Adults in Quebec: Forecasting Invasive Pneumococcal Disease (IPD) Rates of and Serotype Distribution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background. In Canada, the recommendation is to offer PPV23 at age 65 years. PCV13 is now licensed for adults. In Quebec, PCV7 was used in the immunization program for children in 2005-2008, PCV10 in 2009-2010 and PCV13 starting in 2011. Methods. IPD cases reported to public health authorities and characterized by the provincial reference laboratory in 2000-2014 were analyzed. Age- and serotype-specific IPD yearly rates were adjusted for improvement in reporting and serotype identification. Time-series forecasting (SAS Software) was performed using log linear or logit transformation of yearly rates (selected according to lowest mean absolute percentage error), taking baseline periods defined according to dates of introduction of different PCVs for children and up to 2014, and assuming different time horizons to reach a new equilibrium following herd effect and replacement. Results. IPD rate (per 100 000 person-years) and serotype distribution in the age group 65-74 years. Conclusion. Forecasting S. pneumoniae epidemiology should be made with great care but is a must for the economic analysis of adult vaccination. In the age group 65-74 years, IPD caused by PCV7 types has been decreasing during the 2004-2014 period and stabilization at low level is now observed. The same pattern is underway with PCV13/Non-PCV7 types, with the exception of serotype 3 seeming to increase. PPV23/Non-PCV13 types and Non-Vaccine types are on the rise since 2004 and their contribution to overall IPD incidence during the next decade will be determined by the time needed to reach a new equilibrium. Disclosures. P. De Wals, GSK: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research grant. Pfizer: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research grant. Novartis: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Research grant
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".