Bayesian semi-parametric joint modeling of biomarker data with a latent changepoint: assessing the temporal performance of Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) testing for paratuberculosis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a class of semi-parametric statistical models that can be used for the important problem of analyzing longitudinal biomarker data with the purpose of quantifying their diagnostic capabilities, as a function of time from infection. We focus on the complicated problem where there is no gold standard assessment of the actual timing of infection/disease onset (our change point), which provides additional motivation for considering a second, binary test, in order to make it easier to estimate the change points for individuals that become diseased. An important additional feature of our model is its nonparametric part, which allows for distinct biomarker responses to the insult of infection/disease. In our case, the model allows for the possibility of an unknown number of clusters of individuals, each with distinct slopes corresponding to distinct biological reactions. Clusters with steeper slopes would correspond to individuals that could be diagnosed sooner than those with more gradual slopes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it