A stochastic power curve for wind turbines with reduced variability using conditional copula
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract It has been observed that a large variability exists between wind speed and wind power in real metrological conditions. To reduce this substantial variability, this study developed a stochastic wind turbine power curve by incorporating various exogenous factors. Four measurements, namely, wind azimuth, wind elevation, air density and solar radiation are chosen as exogenous influence factors. A recursive formula based on conditional copulas is used to capture the complex dependency structure between wind speed and wind power with reduced variability. A procedure of selecting a proper form for each factor and its corresponding copula models is given. Through a case study on the small wind turbine located in southeast of Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, we demonstrate that the variability can be reduced significantly by incorporating these influence factors. Wind turbine operators can apply the method reported in this study to construct a stochastic power curve for local wind farms and use it to achieve more accurate power forecasting and health condition monitoring of the turbine. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".