Objectively Verified Parental Hip Fracture Is an Independent Risk Factor for Fracture: a Linkage Analysis of 478,792 Parents and 261,705 Offspring
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Parental hip fracture (HF) is considered a major risk factor for offspring major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), but all studies to date have relied on self-reported information of uncertain accuracy. We tested the association of objectively verified parental HF with offspring MOF and HF. We used a population-based historical cohort study of 261,705 offspring (age ≥40 years) with at least one linked parent (total 478,792 parents) for the province of Manitoba, Canada. Cox proportional hazards models were developed to test hazard ratio (HR) for offspring MOF and HF for 1997 to 2014 according to prior parental HF dating back to 1970. The median age of offspring at study entry was 40 years (range, 40 to 50 years), and 48.3% were women. During 2.9 million person-years of offspring follow-up (median per offspring, 12 years), we identified 7323 incident MOF (4.4% versus 2.7% for those with and without a parental HF, p < 0.001), including 331 HF (0.3% versus 0.1%, p < 0.001). Parental HF was independently associated with increased risk of offspring MOF (HR, 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 to 1.41). The strength of the association decreased with older parental age at HF (ptrend < 0.001), and was no longer significant if parental HF occurred after age 80 years (adjusted HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.19). The relationship between parental HF and offspring HF was even stronger than for MOF (adjusted HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.21 to 2.23). Associations with MOF or HF were not affected by either the gender of the parent with HF or the gender of the offspring. Parental HF increased the risk for offspring MOF and HF but not when parental HF occurred after age 80 years. This suggests a more nuanced approach for clinicians trying to stratify fracture risk, and illustrates the enormous potential of parent-offspring record linkage for other familial disorders. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".