Using simple causal modeling to understand how water and temperature affect daily stem radial variation in trees
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Variation in tree stem diameter results from reversible shrinking and swelling and irreversible radial growth, all processes that are influenced by tree water status. To assess the causal effects of water and temperature on stem radial variation (DeltaR) and maximum daily shrinkage (MDS), the diurnal cycle was divided into three phases: contraction, expansion and stem radius increment. Diurnal cycles were measured during 1996-2004 in Picea abies (L.) Karst., Pinus cembra L. and Larix decidua Mill. in a timberline ecotone to understand the links between stem diameter variation (v; defined as MDS or DR), phase duration (h), and weather or sap flow descriptors (d). We demonstrated that a high proportion of MDS and DeltaR was explained by h because of the nonlinearity of the physiological responses to weather d. By causal modeling, we tested whether the relationship between d and v was due to h (lack of causal relationship between d and v) or to both d and h (double cause). The results of this modeling added new physiological insight into daily growth-climate relationships. Negative correlations were found between DeltaR and air temperature owing to the negative effect of temperature on h only, and did not correspond to a direct effect on tree growth mediated by an alteration in metabolic activities. Precipitation had two main effects: a direct effect on DeltaR and an indirect effect mediated through an effect on h. A reduction in sap flow at night led to an increase in DeltaR for P. abies and L. decidua, but not for P. cembra.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it