World Overview: Oil Prices and the Fiscal Stance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
At the global level, GDP growth accelerated to 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2010 according to NIESR estimates — largely driven by a sharp rise in domestic demand in China, which more than offset a slowdown in world trade growth that originated in the US. The economic recovery in the advanced economies remains lacklustre. The sharp rise in the oil price in recent months has exacerbated the effects on output of the protracted downturn in global investment and a tighter fiscal policy stance, at least in Europe. High commodity prices will push inflation in the OECD close to 3 per cent both this year and next. At the global level we expect GDP growth to moderate from an estimated 5.2 per cent in 2010 to just below 4½ per cent per annum in 2011–12, with around half of this slowdown attributable to the effects of the increase in oil prices between October 2010 and April 2011. The key assumptions underlying this forecast are discussed in Appendix A, with our forecasts for key macro variables in 40 major economies detailed in Appendix B.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".