The Red Knot (<i>Calidris canutus rufa</i>) decline in the western hemisphere: is there a lemming connection?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Numbers of Western Atlantic Red Knots (Calidris canutus rufa (A. Wilson, 1813)) have declined since 1980, with a sustained downward trend observed after 1998. Because the reproductive output of a closely related Eurasian subspecies (Calidris canutus islandica (L., 1767)) is known to be low when lemming numbers are low, and because lemming cycles in Fennoscandia were recently interrupted, we investigated the relationship between the rodent cycle in arctic Canada and numbers of C. c. rufa migrating through the United States. Shooting records from Cape Cod in the 1800s and Red Knot counts on the Delaware Bay from 1986 to 1998 cycled with 4-year periods. Annual peaks in numbers of Red Knots stopping in the Delaware Bay in 1986–1998 occurred 2 years after arctic rodent peaks more often than expected at random. The results suggest that the reproductive output of C. c. rufa was linked to the rodent cycle before the Red Knot decline. There is no evidence that such a link existed after 1998. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that an interruption of the rodent cycle in Red Knot habitat could have been a driver in the recent Red Knot decline. Field studies in the Arctic are needed to further investigate this hypothesis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".