Ultrasonography for the prediction of urological surgical intervention in patients with renal colic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
CONTEXT: There are no clear indicators of which ultrasound findings in an emergency department (ED) renal colic population are predictive of urological surgical intervention. OBJECTIVE: To determine the sonographic findings of renal colic that predict surgical intervention. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 500 consecutive ED patients with a diagnosis of renal colic that had ultrasonography (performed by radiology) during their ED visit. Our main outcome was urological surgical intervention. This was defined as extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, percutaneous nephrostomy or ureteroscopy performed within 16 weeks of the initial ED presentation. RESULTS: Of the 500 identified patients, 483 met our eligibility criteria. Of this group, 67 (13.9%) received a surgical intervention. Ultrasound (US) findings were 97% (95% CI 88.7% to 99.5%) sensitive and 28.1% (23.9% to 32.8%) specific in 'diagnosing' the requirement for surgery when the ultrasound (US) showed either at least a stone present or showed moderate to severe hydronephrosis. The presence of stone and moderate to severe hydronephrosis had a + likelihood ratio (LR) 3.86 (2.46 to 6.07) and a -LR 0.72 (0.60 to 0.86). Having a stone ≥6 mm had a sensitivity of 77.6% (65.5% to 86.5%), a specificity of 73.6% (69.0% to 77.7%), a +LR of 2.94 (2.39 to 3.6) and a -LR 0.30 (0.19 to 0.48). CONCLUSIONS: Radiology performed ultrasonography is a valuable tool for identifying renal colic that will go on to receive a surgical intervention in the 16 weeks following an ED visit. Further studies are needed to confirm the utility of ultrasound findings of stone visualisation, stone size and moderate to severe hydronephrosis in determining which patients need outpatient urology follow-up.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".