Classifying Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease Events in Epidemiologic Cohort Studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
RATIONALE: One in 12 adults has chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma. Acute exacerbations of these chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Valid approaches to classifying cases and exacerbations in the general population are needed to facilitate prevention research. OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility, reproducibility, and performance of a protocol to identify CLRD cases and exacerbations triggering emergency department (ED) visits or hospitalizations in cohorts of patients derived from general populations of adults. METHODS: A protocol was developed to classify CLRD cases and severe exacerbations on the basis of review of medical records. ED and inpatient medical records were ascertained prospectively in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos, and inpatient records were retrospectively identified by administrative codes in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. "Probable" exacerbations were defined as a physician's diagnosis of CLRD with acute respiratory symptoms. "Highly probable" exacerbations additionally required systemic corticosteroid therapy, and "definite" exacerbations required airflow limitation or evidence of CLRD on imaging studies. Adjudicated results were compared with CLRD cases identified by spirometry and self-report, and with an administrative definition of exacerbations. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Protocol-based classification was completed independently by two physicians for 216 medical records (56 ED visits and 61 hospitalizations in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos; 99 hospitalizations in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Reviewer disagreement occurred in 2-5% of cases and 4-8% of exacerbations. Eighty-nine percent of records were confirmed as at least probable CLRD cases. Fifty-six percent of confirmed CLRD cases had airflow limitation on the basis of baseline study spirometry. Of records that described CLRD as the primary discharge diagnosis code, an acute exacerbation was confirmed as at least probable for 96% and as highly probable or definite for 77%. Only 50% of records with CLRD as a secondary code were confirmed, although such records accounted for over half of all confirmed exacerbations. CONCLUSIONS: CLRD cases and severe exacerbations without preceding documentation of airflow limitation are identified frequently in population-based cohorts of persons. A primary discharge diagnosis of CLRD is specific but insensitive for defining exacerbations. Protocol-based classification of medical records may be appropriate to supplement and to validate identification of CLRD cases and exacerbations in general population studies. Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00005487 and NCT02060344).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.176 | 0.257 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.011 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".