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Record W2340364769 · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511920943.022

Scenario development for decision making

2011· book-chapter· en· W2340364769 on OpenAlexaff
Villy Christensen, S. X. Lai

Bibliographic record

VenueCambridge University Press eBooks · 2011
Typebook-chapter
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicComplex Systems and Decision Making
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDevelopment (topology)Computer scienceOperations researchEngineeringMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Turning the tide is easy. Tides are after all very predictable; just wait for the right moment before pushing the water back. When it comes to re-directing a current it is far more difficult – it takes climate change to shift the Gulf Stream. What is happening to the world's fisheries, at the local, regional, or global scale appears to be more like a one-way current than a tide with ups and downs (Pauly et al ., 2003). Strong enforcement of effort restrictions may bring a relief in the parts of the world where strong governance is in place (Worm et al ., 2009), while most of the world's marine ecosystems continue to be overexploited. We are gradually eroding many of the ecosystems on which our food supply from the oceans relies, even if we may not notice it as individuals (Pauly, 1995). What can we do to curb the direction of widespread degradation? It is a daunting task to embark on – one where we cannot explicitly express how we will go about solving the problem. We do, however, have an idea of, and experience with, techniques and materials we can use to deliver a small contribution toward the solution. What is clear is that if we as scientists are to make such contributions we must speak up and seek to be heard (Baron, this volume). We must convey the best available scientific information to decision and policymakers (Reichert, this volume).

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.006
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.015
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.076
Threshold uncertainty score0.253

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0060.015
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.004
Science and technology studies0.0010.003
Scholarly communication0.0070.009
Open science0.0030.005
Research integrity0.0030.004
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0760.015

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.177
GPT teacher head0.315
Teacher spread0.138 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venueCambridge University Press eBooksSame topicComplex Systems and Decision MakingFrench-language works237,207