Fire history of the central boreal forest in eastern North America reveals stability since the mid-Holocene
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Past and present fire frequencies are key factors to evaluate fire-mediated changes in climate, but this metric is difficult to evaluate realistically in paleoecological and climatic reconstructions. Here, we applied charcoal analysis of forest soils to test from direct evidence the stability and resilience of the eastern North-American boreal forest at the Holocene timescale. Current knowledge indicates that the boreal forest is not so stable and resilient in several parts of its range, particularly at its northern and southern edges where it is converted to tundra and woodland communities, respectively. However, it is not known to what degree the structure and composition of the boreal forest situated at the central core of its range (FCR), far from the climate-sensitive edges, have been modified during the Holocene. To address the long-term status of the boreal forest vis-a-vis the Holocene climate, we have used a large dataset composed of 14 C-dated and botanically identified charcoal. Long-term fire frequencies in several sites of the FCR were calculated to assess the stability of the main forest ecosystems. The mean fire interval over the last 5000 years of the two principal ecosystems composed of black spruce–jack pine forests and black spruce–balsam fir forests was ~200 and >300 years, respectively. Fires occurred repetitively during this period without fire gaps longer than 400 years (ecosystem 1) and 600 years (ecosystem 2), an indication that the fire regime of the FCR remained stable since the mid-Holocene. Unchanged forest ecosystems during this period also suggest the maintenance of both fire-prone and less fire-prone tree species in their respective sites and the ability of the boreal biome to maintain its structure and function in a repetitive fire-disturbance regime.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".