Business Cycle Dynamics of Economic Growth in the OECD Countries: Evidence from Markov-Switching Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study estimates the Markov-switching model and examines the Keynesian business cycle dynamics ofeconomic growth for a comprehensive set of eight OECD countries. The estimated duration of regime one is (i)shorter for Denmark, Sweden and Switzerland, (ii) moderate for France and (iii) longer for Belgium, Spain andthe U.S. The persistence of regime two is observed to be (i) shorter for Belgium, Canada, Spain, Sweden andthe U.S., (ii) moderate for Denmark and France, and (iii) longer for Switzerland. The stylized evidence for thepersistence of a given state has important implications for Keynesian policy activism and the formulation ofmacroeconomic stabilization policies. The monetary and fiscal policies are used to reduce the amplitudes andtime-durations of the economic growth cycles and, thus, stabilise the output around its long-run natural ratelevel and the inflation around its target level. The short-run downward rigidities in prices in the goods marketsand in nominal wages in the factor markets tend to impinge upon the clearance of markets and the accelerationof economic growth during recessions, thereby leading to the pathologically longer durations of lower regimes.While the longer durations of upper regimes support the sustainability of the expansionary economic policies,the adequate precautions need to be taken for the inflationary implications of these policies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".