Accuracy when inferential statistics are used as measurement tools
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Inferential statistical tests that approximate measurement are called acceptance procedures. The procedure includes type 1 error, falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, and type 2 error, failing to reject the null hypothesis when the alternative should be supported. This approach involves repeated sampling from a distribution with established parameters such that the probabilities of these errors can be ascertained. With low error probabilities the procedure has the potential to approximate measurement. How close this procedure approximates measurement was examined. FINDINGS: A Monte Carlo procedure set the type 1 error at p = 0.05 and the type 2 error at either p = 0.20 or p = 0.10 for effect size values of d = 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8. The resultant values are approximately 15 and 6.25% larger than the effect sizes entered into the analysis depending on a type 2 error rate of p < 0.20, or p < 0.10 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Acceptance procedures approximate values wherein a decision could be made. In a health district a deviation at a particular level could signal a change in health. The approximations could be reasonable in some circumstances, but if more accurate measures are desired a deviation could be reduced by the percentage appropriate for the power. The tradeoff for such a procedure is an increase in type 1 error rate and a decrease in type 2 errors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.422 | 0.881 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.012 | 0.016 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.017 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.016 | 0.017 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.010 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".