Use of the modified frailty index to predict 30-day morbidity and mortality from spine surgery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Limited tools exist to stratify perioperative risk in patients undergoing spinal procedures. The modified frailty index (mFI) based on the Canadian Study of Health and Aging Frailty Index (CSHA-FI), constructed from standard demographic variables, has been applied to various other surgical populations for risk stratification. The authors hypothesized that it would be predictive of postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing spine surgery. METHODS The 2006-2010 National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data set was accessed for patients undergoing spine surgeries based on Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. Sixteen preoperative clinical NSQIP variables were matched to 11 CSHA-FI variables (changes in daily activities, gastrointestinal problems, respiratory problems, clouding or delirium, hypertension, coronary artery and peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, and so on). The outcomes assessed were 30-day occurrences of adverse events. These were then summarized in groups: any infection, wound-related complication, Clavien IV complications (life-threatening, requiring ICU admission), and mortality. RESULTS A total of 18,294 patients were identified. In 8.1% of patients with an mFI of 0 there was at least one morbid complication, compared with 24.3% of patients with an mFI of ≥ 0.27 (p < 0.001). An mFI of 0 was associated with a mortality rate of 0.1%, compared with 2.3% for an mFI of ≥ 0.27 (p < 0.001). Patients with an mFI of 0 had a 1.7% rate of surgical site infections and a 0.8% rate of Clavien IV complications, whereas patients with an mFI of ≥ 0.27 had rates of 4.1% and 7.1% for surgical site infections and Clavien IV complications, respectively (p < 0.001 for both). Multivariate analysis showed that the preoperative mFI and American Society of Anesthesiologists classification of ≥ III had a significantly increased risk of leading to Clavien IV complications and death. CONCLUSIONS A higher mFI was associated with a higher risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality, providing an additional tool to improve perioperative risk stratification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".