Sustained Epidemic and Transient Oscillations of Schistosome Infection in Multiple Vertebrate Hosts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Schistosomes are parasitic worms, related to the flatworm, which live in the digestive tract or vascular system of their vertebrate hosts. They have a complex life cycle, which includes both an intermediate rnolluscan (or snail) and a vertebrate host. We derive a dynamical model based on the early work of MacDonald and of May and incorporated more time delays to account for various times required during the life cycle of a schistosome. Our model involves a mating function proposed by May and Woolhouse, and our work shows that varying a parameter in the mating function, which represents a disputed aspect of schistosome behavior, can change the structure of equilibria and the transmission dynamics from sustained epidemic to extinction of the infection. We also show that long lasting transient oscillations of the transmission can be observed by varying the initial average load of paired schistosomes and the initial number of infected and shedding snails. In particular, we illustrate that the average load of paired schistosomes can remain well below its epidemic level for quite a long time before it rises and monotonically approaches the epidemi level. This suggests that prediction of the infection extinction should not be based on the level of paired schistosomes over a short priod of time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".