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Record W2399745787

Do Crude Petroleum Imports Affect GDP of Turkey

2015· article· en· W2399745787 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Meliha Ener, K Cüneyt, Feyza Balan

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Applied Finance and Banking · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVariance decomposition of forecast errorsGranger causalityVector autoregressionEconomicsPetroleumCrude oilEconometricsQuarter (Canadian coin)CointegrationChemistryEngineeringGeographyPetroleum engineering
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This study examines the dynamic linkages between crude petroleum imports and GDP of Turkey. The vector autoregression analysis is carried on quarterly data for the period 1998Q1 to 2013Q2. This study utilized the generalized approach to forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis which have many advantages against the traditional orthogonalized approach. The empirical results suggest that petroleum imports have positive impact on GDP until the second quarter. But, after the second quarter crude petroleum imports have negative impact on GDP. The results of the Granger causality test showed that crude petroleum imports granger caused GDP at 5% significance level, but not vice versa. Moreover, the generalized variance decomposition analysis exerted that the imports of crude petroleum shocks have only a small effect on GDP initially. However, after eighth quarters, the imports of crude petroleum shocks explain 31.7 pct. of the GDP, whereas 26.46 pct. of the variation in imports of crude petroleum shocks is explained by GDP shocks.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.024
Threshold uncertainty score0.049

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.023
GPT teacher head0.226
Teacher spread0.202 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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