Ten-year helium anomaly prior to the 2014 Mt Ontake eruption
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mt Ontake in central Japan suddenly erupted on 27(th) September 2014, killing 57 people with 6 still missing. It was a hydro-volcanic eruption and new magmatic material was not detected. There were no precursor signals such as seismicity and edifice inflation. It is difficult to predict hydro-volcanic eruptions because they are local phenomena that only affect a limited area surrounding the explosive vent. Here we report a long-term helium anomaly measured in hot springs close to the central cone. Helium-3 is the most sensitive tracer of magmatic volatiles. We have conducted spatial surveys around the volcano at once per few years since November 1981. The (3)He/(4)He ratios of the closest site to the cone stayed constant until June 2000 and increased significantly from June 2003 to November 2014, while those of distant sites showed no valuable change. These observations suggest a recent re-activation of Mt Ontake and that helium-3 enhancement may have been a precursor of the 2014 eruption. We show that the eruption was ultimately caused by the increased input of magmatic volatiles over a ten-year period which resulted in the slow pressurization of the volcanic conduit leading to the hydro-volcanic event in September 2014.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".