Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide emissions represent a new traded asset that, in addition to reducing carbon dioxide emissions through cap-and-trade initiatives, can offer financial risk diversification benefits. In this paper, multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are used to model conditional correlations between carbon prices, oil prices, natural gas prices and stock prices. Compared with the diagonal or dynamic conditional correlation model, the constant conditional correlation model is found to fit the data the best and is used to generate hedge ratios and optimal portfolios. Carbon does not appear to be useful for hedging oil or the S&P 500 index but does seem to be useful for hedging natural gas. The average weight for the carbon/natural gas portfolio indicates that for a US$1 portfolio, 29 cents should be invested in carbon and 71 cents invested in natural gas. Hedge ratios and optimal portfolio weights vary considerably over the sample period, indicating that financial positions should be monitored frequently.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".