Estimating the number of quit attempts it takes to quit smoking successfully in a longitudinal cohort of smokers
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The number of quit attempts it takes a smoker to quit successfully is a commonly reported figure among smoking cessation programmes, but previous estimates have been based on lifetime recall in cross-sectional samples of successful quitters only. The purpose of this study is to improve the estimate of number of quit attempts prior to quitting successfully. DESIGN: We used data from 1277 participants who had made an attempt to quit smoking in the Ontario Tobacco Survey, a longitudinal survey of smokers followed every 6 months for up to 3 years beginning in 2005. We calculated the number of quit attempts prior to quitting successfully under four different sets of assumptions. Our expected best set of assumptions incorporated a life table approach accounting for the declining success rates for subsequent observed quit attempts in the cohort. RESULTS: The estimated average number of quit attempts expected before quitting successfully ranged from 6.1 under the assumptions consistent with prior research, 19.6 using a constant rate approach, 29.6 using the method with the expected lowest bias, to 142 using an approach including previous recall history. CONCLUSIONS: Previous estimates of number of quit attempts required to quit may be underestimating the average number of attempts as these estimates excluded smokers who have greater difficulty quitting and relied on lifetime recall of number of attempts. Understanding that for many smokers it may take 30 or more quit attempts before being successful may assist with clinical expectations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it