Stroke and death in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation in Japan compared with the United Kingdom
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background Data on stroke, mortality and associated comorbidities in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in Japan may differ from Western countries. There have been few systematic comparisons between stroke risk profiles and outcomes among community-based elderly (aged ≥75 years) patients with AF in Japan and the UK. Objective and methods We compared clinical characteristics, stroke risk and outcomes among elderly patients with AF from the Fushimi AF Registry (Japan; N=1791) and the Darlington AF Registry (UK; N=1338). Results The Fushimi cohort had a mean age 81.8 (standard deviation (SD) 5.3) years and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (double), diabetes mellitus, previous thromboembolism (double), vascular disease, age 65–74 years and female gender) score 4.3 (1.4), whereas the Darlington cohort had a mean age 83.6 (5.7) years and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score 4.4 (1.4). Over a 12-month follow-up period, observed stroke and mortality rates in Fushimi were 3.4% (n=61) and 11.5% (n=206), while corresponding event rates in the Darlington cohort were 4.4% (n=59) and 14.1% (n=188), respectively. Appropriate use of oral anticoagulation (OAC, essentially a vitamin K antagonist) was <60% in both registries. On multivariable analysis, ethnicity (Japan vs UK) was neither associated with the risk of stroke (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.36; p=0.69) nor death (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.27; p=0.92). In a subgroup analysis of elderly patients not receiving OAC (n=1489), a history of stroke was associated with the risk of stroke (OR 2.42, 95% CI 1.39 to 4.12; p=0.002), but not ethnicity (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.47; p=0.58). Conclusions Elderly (age ≥75 years) patients with AF in both Japan and the UK are at similarly high risk of stroke and death, with OAC still underused in both populations. Ethnicity was not independently associated with the risk of stroke, regardless of OAC use or non-use.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".