Average symptom trajectories following incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Previous research has identified the existence of a prodromal phase of symptom worsening beginning on average 2-3 years prior to the first appearance of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA). The current study extends these observations to investigate the trajectory of self-reported pain, stiffness, function and other symptoms following the incidence of radiographic OA. METHODS: Data were from the incidence cohort of the Osteoarthritis Initiative public use data sets. Cases were defined as knees without symptoms at enrolment, which developed incident radiographic OA (Kellgren and Lawrence grade ≥2) at any of the first 4 annual follow-up visits. Symptoms investigated were knee-specific Western Ontario & McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index and Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score subscale scores and individual items, available up to 3 years before and 5 years after the incidence of radiographic OA. Trajectories of having at least one of the symptoms from a subscale, and for each individual symptom over time, were fitted using multilevel logistic regression models. RESULTS: The probability of symptoms following the initial prodromal phase generally stabilised, whereas the probability of moderate, severe or extreme symptoms was consistently low. Two exceptions were pain frequency, which increased greatly in the lead up to incidence, then decreased slightly, and audible joint sounds, which had a much higher overall probability, and after increasing prior to incident radiographic OA, stabilised then started to increase again at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Following an increase in the risk of symptoms during the prodromal phase, this risk does not continue to increase in the period up to 5 years after the incidence of radiographic OA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".