Mendelian Randomization Studies Do Not Support a Role for Vitamin D in Coronary Artery Disease
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Observational studies support a possible association between decreased vitamin D levels and risk of coronary artery disease (CAD); however, it remains unclear whether this relationship is causal. We aimed to evaluate whether genetically lowered vitamin D levels influence the risk of CAD using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this 2-stage Mendelian randomization study, we first identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels in the SUNLIGHT consortium (n=33 996), then tested them for possible violation of Mendelian randomization assumptions. A count of risk alleles was tested for association with 25OHD levels in a separate cohort (n=2347). Alleles were weighted by their relative effect on 25OHD and tested for their combined effect on CAD in the Coronary Artery Disease Genome-Wide Replication and Meta-Analysis (CARDIoGRAM) study (22 233 cases/64 762 controls). Four single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified to be associated with 25OHD levels, all in or near genes implicated in 25OHD synthesis, transport or metabolism. A count of these risk alleles was strongly associated with 25OHD (n=2347, F-test statistic=49.7, P=2×10(-12)). None of the single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with 25OHD levels were associated with CAD (all P values >0.6). The Mendelian randomization odds ratio (OR) for CAD was 0.99 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.17; P=0.93; I(2)=0) per SD decrease in log-transformed 25OHD levels. These results persisted after sensitivity analyses for population stratification and pleiotropy. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically lowered 25OHD levels were not associated with increased risk of CAD in a large, well-powered study, suggesting that previous associations between circulating 25OHD levels and CAD are possibly confounded or due to reverse causation.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it