Why western spruce budworms travel so far for the winter
Bibliographic record
Abstract
1. Conifer‐feeding budworms ( C horistoneura ) hibernate in sheltered locations on their host trees from late summer of 1 year to spring of the next. During this period, they do not feed but rely on sustenance provided in the egg. Overwinter survival is dependent on the rate of consumption of these limited reserves. 2. A process model was developed that quantifies the relationship between the rate of consumption and survival at variable temperatures and exposure times for western spruce budworm. The model supported physiological evidence that warm weather conditions early in the diapause period have a dominant influence on overwinter survival. Output compared favourably with field observations of poorer budworm survival at lower elevations where late‐summer and autumn temperatures were warmer compared to those overwintering at cooler, higher elevations. 3. Field experiments demonstrated these weather‐dependent rates of survival were modulated significantly by the degree of shelter experienced by hibernating budworms. 4. Dissection of whole trees harbouring overwintering western spruce budworms showed a significant portion of the population had travelled a considerable distance from the periphery of the tree canopy where eggs were laid to overwinter successfully on the tree bole where sheltered niches are common. 5. Thus, budworms will travel relatively long distances and risk increased mortality during this dispersal to find adequate shelter to overwinter.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".