Geological characteristics and petroleum resource assessment of the Macasty Formation, Anticosti Island, Quebec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study presents the first independent evaluation of the in place hydrocarbon resources for the Macasty Formation on Anticosti Island. The evaluation uses the dual porosity model of the GSC. The data consists of all public domain information as well as confidential data provided by the operators on the island. Our evaluation indicates significant volume of both oil with a best estimate or P50 of 32.3 billion barrels of oil (BBO) with maximum (P5) of 55.4 and minimum (P95) of 17.1 BBO and for natural gas with a best estimate or P50 of 52.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with maximum (P5) of 85.2 and minimum (P95) of 29.0 TCF. However, the comparison of the maximum (55.4 BBO / 85.2 TCF) and minimum (17.1 BBO / 29.0 TCF) resources in place illustrates a significant uncertainty on the evaluation most likely related to the relative low density and quality of the data (spatial coverage, diverse acquisition methods). Previous industry estimates suggest an in-place P50 resource of 42.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, a value that lump together oil and gas based on a thermal equivalence of 1 barrel of oil equivalent for 6000 cubic feet of gas. Our P50 result is 42.1 billion of barrels of oil-equivalent. From these results, a ratio of 78% oil to 22% gas is proposed as in-place resource on the island. Because of the lack of production data, no attempt was made to evaluate the recovery portion of the in-place resource.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".