Capital Flows and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pre-Crises ASEAN Economies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AbstractIndonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand had open financial markets and pegged exchange rates over the period leading up to their financial crises in the 1990s. This chapter examines the extent of their domestic monetary autonomy: using a variant of the monetary model of the balance of payments, it investigates the extent to which domestic monetary policy is frustrated by capital inflows. To do so, it estimates for each country the ‘offset coefficient’ — a summary measure of the degree to which the induced capital flows offset domestic monetary policy. Next, a monetary policy reaction function is estimated for each country to determine the extent to which monetary authorities pursued sterilization measures to counter capital flows. It then examines the degree to which central banks in these countries employed monetary policy for domestic goals by estimating an interest rate equation to assess the effectiveness of sterilization measures. The empirical results show that the capital flow offset was less than complete and sterilization attempts by central banks turned out to be ineffective in three of the four countries.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".