Interannual and seasonal variabilities in air‐sea CO<sub>2</sub> fluxes along the U.S. eastern continental shelf and their sensitivity to increasing air temperatures and variable winds
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Uncertainty in continental shelf air‐sea CO2 fluxes motivated us to investigate the impact of interannual and seasonal variabilities in atmospheric forcing on the capacity of three shelf regions along the U.S. eastern continental shelf to act as a sink or source of atmospheric CO2. Our study uses a coupled biogeochemical‐circulation model to simulate scenarios of “present‐day” and “future‐perturbed” mesoscale forcing variability. Overall, the U.S. eastern continental shelf acts as a sink for atmospheric CO2. There is a clear gradient in air‐sea CO2 flux along the shelf region, with estimates ranging from −0.6 Mt C yr−1 in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) to −1.0 Mt C yr−1 in the Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) and −2.5 Mt C yr−1 in the Gulf of Maine (GOM). These fluxes are associated with considerable interannual variability, with the largest interannual signal exhibited in the Gulf of Maine. Seasonal variability in the fluxes is also evident, with autumn and winter being the strongest CO2 sink periods and summer months exhibiting some outgassing. In our future‐perturbed scenario spatial differences tend to cancel each other out when the fluxes are integrated over the MAB and GOM, resulting in only minor differences between future‐perturbed and present‐day air‐sea CO2 fluxes. This is not the case in the SAB where the position of the along‐shelf gradient shifts northward and the SAB becomes a source of CO2 to the atmosphere (0.7 Mt C yr−1) primarily in response to surface warming. Our results highlight the importance of temperature in regulating air‐sea CO2 flux variability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".