Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS: We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS: =0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION: GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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The record

Venue

The Lancet

Topic

Global Maternal and Child Health

Field

Medicine

Canadian institutions

—

Funders

Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia UniversityNational Institute on Minority Health and Health DisparitiesNational Institute of Environmental Health SciencesNational Human Genome Research InstituteNational Institute on AgingNorwegian Institute of Public HealthSchool of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityBhabha Atomic Research CentreResearch Institute, Nationwide Children's HospitalFeinberg School of MedicinePerelman School of Medicine, University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel HillNational Institutes of HealthAswan UniversityGeorge Institute for Global HealthChildren's Hospital of MichiganWestern Sydney UniversityUniversidade Federal de SergipeINCLIVA Instituto de Investigación SanitariaUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesFakultet Medicinskih Nauka, Univerziteta U KragujevcuAlfaisal UniversityUniversity of GondarUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownUniversità degli Studi di SalernoUniversidade do PortoCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud MentalUniversidad de la República UruguayShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesBaqiyatallah University of Medical SciencesUniversitat de BarcelonaGöteborgs UniversitetUniversität BielefeldNational Yang-Ming UniversityUniversidad de Costa RicaShanghai Jiao Tong UniversityHaramaya UniversitySichuan UniversityInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliUniversidad Autónoma de MadridUniversiteit StellenboschAddis Ababa UniversityUniversidad Autónoma MetropolitanaUniversity of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterKorea Health Industry Development InstituteUniversitat de ValènciaDepartment for International DevelopmentDalhousie UniversityKorea UniversityHacettepe ÜniversitesiKosin UniversitySun Yat-sen UniversityErasmus Universiteit RotterdamMuhimbili University of Health and Allied SciencesUniversity of Southern QueenslandQueensland University of TechnologyJames Cook UniversityLaboratório Associado para a Química VerdeOklahoma State UniversityFlinders UniversityInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshMonash UniversityCase Western Reserve UniversityUniversity of SydneyUniversità degli Studi di PerugiaRijksuniversiteit GroningenPublic Health EnglandWageningen University and ResearchPublic Health Foundation of IndiaIndian Council of Medical ResearchArkansas State UniversitySwansea UniversityKyung Hee UniversityUniversitair Medisch Centrum GroningenAustralian National UniversityUniversity of East AngliaNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchAhmadu Bello UniversityUniversity of SouthamptonIstituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri - IRCCSNational Drug and Alcohol Research CentreYonsei UniversityBirzeit UniversityRobert Koch InstitutIran University of Medical SciencesSree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and TechnologyImperial College LondonKing's College LondonBrien Holden Vision InstituteMinistry of Health of the Russian FederationHáskólinn í ReykjavíkFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São PauloUniversity of AberdeenNational Taiwan UniversityTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesUniversity of OklahomaMount Sinai Health SystemJordan University of Science and TechnologyNational Cerebral and Cardiovascular CenterUniversity of California, San DiegoUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaNational Health Research InstitutesUniversity of West FloridaNational Cancer InstituteSeoul National UniversityLahore College for Women UniversityUniversity of Massachusetts BostonUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulCentral South UniversityUniversity Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation TrustArabian Gulf UniversityDeakin UniversityNationwide Children's HospitalRensselaer Polytechnic InstituteHelsingin YliopistoOttawa Hospital Research InstituteRussian Academy of SciencesJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public HealthUniversity of RochesterAuckland University of Technology, New ZealandUniversity of OtagoUniversity of LouisvilleUniversity of New South WalesMedical Center, University of RochesterUniversity of PittsburghBrandeis UniversityGolestan University of Medical SciencesAmerican University of BeirutMedical Research CouncilDurban University of TechnologyUniversity of Cape TownUniversity of OttawaRede de Química e TecnologiaAcademy of Medical SciencesSandia National LaboratoriesUniversity of PeradeniyaWashington State UniversityNorth-West UniversityUniversitetet i BergenSimmons CollegeErasmus Universitair Medisch Centrum RotterdamSouth African Medical Research CouncilInternational Medical UniversityWellcome TrustJohns Hopkins UniversitySchool of Medicine, Wayne State UniversityUniversity of HaifaWayne State UniversityBanaras Hindu UniversityChildren's Hospital of PhiladelphiaStrongHamad Medical CorporationMassachusetts General HospitalAlborz University of Medical SciencesNorthwestern UniversityUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaUniversity of MissouriRMIT UniversityNational Center for Child Health and DevelopmentUnited Arab Emirates UniversityEmory UniversityUniversity of PennsylvaniaSoonchunhyang UniversityBall State UniversityUnited Nations Population FundUniversität UlmCalifornia Air Resources BoardHomi Bhabha National InstituteHospital de Clínicas de Porto AlegreNova Southeastern UniversityVirginia Commonwealth UniversityBrown UniversityArak University of Medical SciencesUniversità degli Studi di MilanoNorthumbria UniversityUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentGeorge Mason UniversityCurtin University of TechnologyUniversiteit GentBill and Melinda Gates FoundationUniversidade Federal de PelotasIndian Institute of Technology RoparU.S. Department of Health and Human ServicesKoch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyAarhus UniversitetTrường Đại học Duy TânMinistry of Health and Medical EducationWorld Health Organization

Keywords

Millennium Development GoalsIndex (typography)Global healthSustainable developmentHealth indicatorScale (ratio)MedicineStatisticsEnvironmental healthGeographyDemographyDeveloping countryPublic healthPopulationEconomic growthMathematicsEconomicsPolitical scienceComputer scienceCartography

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