Reproductive Rates in Lesser Scaup (<i>Aythya affinis</i>) in Southwestern Manitoba: Another Look at the Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Surveys indicate that Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) populations declined during the early 1980s and have since remained below conservation goals. Reasons suggested for the decline include chemical contamination, climate change, and reduced food resources. According to the latter theory, reproductive success of Lesser Scaup has declined because females now arrive on the breeding grounds with fewer nutrient reserves than in the past and this diminished body condition is the result of reduced food resources available at wintering and/or migration areas. To determine whether reproductive success has declined over time, I examined selected Lesser Scaup reproductive rates from 2008 to 2014 in southwestern Manitoba and compared them with those recorded before the continental population decline. Estimated productivity (age class IIa broods/pair), hatching date, Ia and IIa brood size, duckling survival rate (first sighting to age class IIa), and proportion of age class IIa broods with females in attendance were unchanged from values recorded in 1970–1972. Thus, if females are arriving on southern breeding areas with reduced body reserves, they may be recovering these losses before nesting, enabling them to attain reproductive rates similar to those in the past. In addition, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that reduced food resources at non-breeding areas could affect recruitment of southern prairie-parkland breeders to a lesser extent than northern breeders because of the longer time between arrival and egg-laying in the south.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".