Climate Warming as an Explanation for the Recent Northward Range Extension of Two Dragonflies, <i>Pachydiplax longipennis</i> and <i>Perithemis tenera</i>, into the Ottawa Valley, Eastern Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate warming is accepted as an explanation for the recent appearance of Blue Dasher, Pachydiplax longipennis (Burmeister, 1839), and Eastern Amberwing, Perithemis tenera (Say, 1839), in the Ottawa region, as this range expansion meets 6 criteria: (1) the climate in the newly occupied territory has warmed sufficiently to allow colonization; (2) a new range expectation based on the amount of climate warming is met; (3) other factors potentially promoting spread are excluded; (4) the possibility that range extension is a result of difficulty of observation and/or insufficient fieldwork in earlier times is excluded; (5) there is ample evidence for establishment; and (6) spread has been in the direction of the warmer territory or within it. By 2000, the mean daily temperature in the Ottawa region had increased by about 2°C since 1880 and about 1.1°C since 1960. This would allow new zonal boundaries and the prediction of expansion from a well-defined and long-occupied area into the Ottawa Valley. The two species entered this region in 2008–2012 and, subsequently, became well established.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".