Early impact of Ontario’s human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program on anogenital warts (AGWs): A population-based assessment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to evaluate the early population impact of Ontario's school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program, implemented in September 2007 for grade 8 females, by comparing anogenital wart (AGW) health care utilization before and after vaccine program implementation, in program-eligible and program-ineligible cohorts, focusing on 15-26year olds. METHODS: Using a retrospective longitudinal population-based study design, health administrative data were used to identify incident AGWs and total health service utilization (HSU) for AGWs for Ontario residents 15years and older between April 1 2004 and March 31 2014. The study period was divided into two eras: the pre-vaccine program era and the vaccine program era. Negative binomial models were generated to analyze trends across time by age group and sex. We adjusted female rates for routine Papanicolaou (Pap) testing to address spillover effects of Pap smear policy changes on AGW diagnosis. RESULTS: Between fiscal years 2004 and 2013, AGW incidence decreased 2.6% on average per year in 15-17year old females, and total HSU for AGWs decreased an average of 4.8% and 2.2% per year in 15-17 and 18-20year old females. Comparing the vaccine era to the pre-vaccine era, AGW incidence decreased 6.5% in 18-20year old females, and AGW HSU decreased 13.8%, 11.1%, and 10.0% in 15-17, 18-20, and 21-23year old females respectively. In contrast, male AGW incidence rates increased an average of 4.1%, 2.8%, and 0.9% per year in 15-17, 21-23, and 24-26year old males respectively. AGW incidence rates increased 12.2% in 15-17year old males from the pre-vaccine to vaccine era. CONCLUSION: The decline in AGW incidence and HSU in program-eligible females suggests the school-based HPV vaccination program has had an early population impact in Ontario. The increasing AGW incidence in males suggests no early evidence of herd effects in males.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".