ENSO influence on tropical cyclone regional landfall counts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A simple linear regression analysis investigates the influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on tropical cyclone counts and regional landfall patterns in the North Atlantic basin.Tropical cyclones from the period 1871-2013 are examined using storm locations from the North Atlantic Hurricane Database.The ENSO phase is determined using several well-known indices-the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the MEI, the Bivariate ENSO Index, and the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).Regression statistics are computed over two time periods: a long-term historical period (1871-2005) and the more recent past (since 1950), the latter being necessary because the ONI and MEI data series do not extend prior to the mid-20th century.Landfall counts were computed over three regions of North America: (i) Canada/United States East Coast, (ii) United States Gulf Coast/Florida, and (iii) Central America/Mexico.Results of this analysis indicate that the phase of ENSO influences interannual variability in tropical cyclone and landfall counts at a statistically significant level, no matter which index is used.However, the relationship between the phase of ENSO and tropical cyclone landfall counts differs markedly between regions.Relationships between ENSO phase and landfall counts for Central America/Mexico and Canada/ United States East Coast predominantly pass the test of statistical significance for all ENSO indices used, whereas United States Gulf Coast/Florida landfall counts fail the test.The regression slope is correspondingly small for the United States Gulf Coast/Florida.Thus, during El Niño events, when tropical cyclones are less likely to form, smaller decreases in landfall probabilities exist for the United States Gulf Coast/Florida than for Canada/United States East Coast and Central America/Mexico.As a result, landfall activity over the United States Gulf Coast/Florida is less influenced by the ENSO phase than in Central America/Mexico or Canada/United States East Coast.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".