The Projected Epidemic of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Hospitalizations over the Next 15 Years. A Population-based Perspective
Bibliographic record
Abstract
COPD is currently one of the leading causes of hospitalizations in industrialized countries. The future burden of COPD is uncertain as the trends in the prevalence of the main risk factors for COPD, namely cigarette smoking and population aging, are moving in opposite directions in many jurisdictions. Here, we used data from British Columbia (BC), a Canadian Province of 4.7 million people, as an exemplary jurisdiction to illustrate the projected growth of COPD hospitalizations over the next 15 years in developed countries. We combined forecasts of population growth and aging with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model applied to BC’s population-based administrative health databases (2001 to 2010) to project the trends in the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and total length of inpatient stays to 2030. Based on this model, we predict that the absolute number of COPD cases will increase by more than 150% from 2010 to 2030 with the greatest growth in the older age group (75 years of age and ...
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".