Estimating Homebuyer Preferences Under Intensification: Hedonic Modelling of Open Space and Multimodal Transit Amenities Preceding Light Rail in Kitchener-Waterloo
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Intensification is the preeminent growth management approach in Ontario, as well as across much of North America. Under this approach, the Region of Waterloo is currently constructing a light rail transit system and undertaking co-ordinated planning to support population and employment densification alongside other regional goals. The work presented in this thesis is centred on the development of spatially explicit hedonic models to estimate residential preferences for amenities associated with intensification. The results of this work are to be used as willingness-to-pay parameters in an agent-based land use-transport model. \n \nThe hedonic models presented in this thesis use 26,873 Kitchener-Waterloo residential property sales from 2005 to 2015 to estimate the joint effects of willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept for housing. Combined spatial lag and spatial error models are employed to test the effects of environmental home characteristics on assessed and appreciation-adjusted transaction values, for single-detached homes, semi-detached and duplex homes, and townhouses. \n \nThese models are specified to estimate effects related to the changing built form and housing market under intensification; specifically, this work estimates the price effects associated with access to public and semi-public open space, access to public transit (local bus stops), and walkability throughout the period preceding light rail. A large number of socioeconomic control variables were developed and analyzed to determine an appropriate model specification. Heterogeneous willingness-to-pay estimates are presented for intensification amenities within and outside of the Central Transit Corridor throughout three time periods. Models using assessed values and transaction values provided slightly different but comparable results. Results suggest a positive willingness-to pay effect of walkability for single-detached homes and semi-detached and duplex homes. However, walkability was found to only significantly relate to townhouse value through a synergistic interaction with open space and a negative interactive effect with transit. The regional Central Transit Corridor generally saw greater increases in property value due to walkability and in general throughout the implementation process of regional light rail, compared to homes outside of it. \n \nThe results of this thesis may be used to help inform policies and investments related to housing, public amenity distribution, and multimodal transit planning. While the precise estimates produced in this work are context-specific, broadly, these results can provide guidance in other municipalities and land-markets similarly undergoing intensification
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".