The Effect of Predialysis Fistula Attempt on Risk of All-Cause and Access-Related Death
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Whether the lower risk of mortality associated with arteriovenous fistula use in hemodialysis patients is due to the avoidance of catheters or if healthier patients are simply more likely to have fistulas placed is unknown. To provide clarification, we determined the proportion of access-related deaths in a retrospective cohort study of patients aged ≥18 years who initiated hemodialysis between 2004 and 2012 at five Canadian dialysis programs. A total of 3168 patients initiated dialysis at the participating centers; 2300 met our inclusion criteria. Two investigators independently adjudicated cause of death using explicit criteria and determined whether a death was access-related. We observed significantly lower mortality in individuals who underwent a predialysis fistula attempt than in those without a predialysis fistula attempt in patients aged <65 years (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.29 to 0.82) and in the first 2 years of follow-up in those aged ≥65 years (HR 0–24 months , 0.60; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.84; HR 24+ months , 1.83; 95% CI, 1.25 to 2.67). Sudden deaths that occurred out of hospital accounted for most of the deaths, followed by deaths due to cardiovascular disease and infectious complications. We found only 2.3% of deaths to be access-related. In conclusion, predialysis fistula attempt may associate with a lower risk of mortality. However, the excess mortality observed in patients treated with catheters does not appear to be due to direct, access-related complications but is likely the result of residual confounding, unmeasured comorbidity, or treatment selection bias.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".