BMI at Age 17 Years and Diabetes Mortality in Midlife: A Nationwide Cohort of 2.3 Million Adolescents
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The sequelae of increasing childhood obesity are of major concern. We assessed the association of BMI in late adolescence with diabetes mortality in midlife. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The BMI values of 2,294,139 Israeli adolescents (age 17.4 ± 0.3 years), measured between 1967 and 2010, were grouped by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age/sex percentiles and by ordinary BMI values. The outcome, obtained by linkage with official national records, was death attributed to diabetes mellitus (DM) as the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazards models were applied. RESULTS: onward. Overweight (85th to 94th percentiles) and obesity (the 95th percentile or higher), compared with the 5th to 24th percentiles, were associated with hazard ratios (HRs) of 8.0 (95% CI 5.7-11.3) and 17.2 (11.9-24.8) for DM mortality, respectively, after adjusting for sex, age, birth year, height, and sociodemographic variables. The HR for the 50th through 74th percentiles was 1.6 (95% CI 1.1-2.3). Findings persisted in a series of sensitivity analyses. The estimated population-attributable fraction for DM mortality, 31.2% (95% CI 26.6-36.1%) for the 1967-1977 prevalence of overweight and obesity at age 17, rose to a projected 52.1% (95% CI 46.4-57.4%) for the 2012-2014 prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent BMI, including values within the currently accepted "normal" range, strongly predicts DM mortality up to the seventh decade. The increasing prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity points to a substantially increased future adult DM burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".