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Record W2538766424 · doi:10.4236/me.2016.711124

Dynamic Structure of the Global Financial System of Systems

2016· article· en· W2538766424 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Khaldoun Khashanah, Yue Li

Bibliographic record

VenueModern Economy · 2016
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicComplex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsSystemic riskEconomicsFinancial marketFinanceBusinessFinancial economicsFinancial crisisMacroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Purpose: This paper empirically investigates the structural evolution of global financial systems from the system of systems (SoS) view for eleven countries. The financial SoS consists of eleven countries each of which has its own financial system with relative autonomy. The paper aims to provide a prototype of the structural dynamics of the global financial SoS for the eleven financial entities during different phases of the financial markets. Methodology/Approach: The graph-theoretic approach of minimum spanning trees (MST) is applied on two levels to construct the component level of a subsystem within each country and the systemic level of global financial SoS. An SoS can be viewed as a network of networks (NoN) of financial transactions. The statistical approach of principal components analysis (PCA) is also applied to the systemic level of financial SoS among geographic countries to find the driving factor of variance. Originality/Value: This study provides an empirical quantitative measure of systemic risk and applies it to the global SoS to describe the interconnections and linkages. This paper examines the transmission of risks among the components. The structural dynamics of the SoS is expected to be a function of economic cycles including episodes of economic expansion and contraction. Findings: The average distance of component level MST is found to be lower during an economic contraction and higher during an economic expansion. The systemic level MST of global SoS can successfully reflect the geographic as well as the economic relationship between countries. The model verifies the intuition on natural clusters of Germany-France-Italy and the USA-Canada-UK as implied by the tight economic interconnections in each cluster. The result from PCA shows the USA, UK, and Australia experienced a counter movement compared to other European countries during the Euro debt crisis. The Japan financial system contraction and expansion can be explained by other countries indicating that it does not appear to be the driving factor of global SoS over the period of the data sample.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.007
Threshold uncertainty score0.016

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.002
Scholarly communication0.0020.003
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.008
GPT teacher head0.173
Teacher spread0.164 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2016
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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