Modelling the potential geographic distribution of an endangered pollination corridor in <scp>M</scp>exico and the <scp>U</scp>nited <scp>S</scp>tates
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Every spring endangered Mexican long‐nosed bats ( L eptonycteris nivalis ) migrate up to 1200 km from central Mexico to southern United States. Evidence suggests that L. nivalis follows the blooms of paniculate agave plants (genus Agave , subgenus Agave ). Paniculate agave inflorescences are adapted to attract bats, and studies have indicated that Leptonycteris spp. played a key role in Agave speciation. We test the hypothesis of the Agave migratory corridor by (1) modelling the distribution of the relevant Agave species; and (2) testing whether bat records are significantly related to Agave species richness as predicted by our models. Location Mexico and United States. Methods We selected nine paniculate Agave species based on a set of criteria and modelled the current distribution of those species using maxent and the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Production (GARP), and geographic information systems to analyse the spatial correspondence of Agave richness and presence of L. nivalis . Results We combined the Agave presence maps that resulted from the models with higher performance to create a richness map. This map indicated up to five species overlapping. L. nivalis occurrence areas correspond with areas with two, three and four Agave species more often than random expectations at the 0.05 significance level. The opposite is observed for areas with 0 Agave species where L. nivalis correspond less often than random. Main conclusions Presence–pseudo‐absence and presence–background modelling tools allowed us to map potential Agave presence. These maps could guide conservation actions to ensure the maintenance of this pollination corridor. Areas with higher number of Agave species are distributed along mountain chains and may provide foraging resources for L. nivalis for longer period of time during its migration. We recommend implementing a long‐term monitoring programme in those areas to document inflorescence timing in Agave species and the presence of L. nivalis .
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".