Patchy distribution and low effective population size raise concern for an at‐risk top predator
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Understanding carnivore distribution is important for management decisions that aim to restore naturally regulated ecosystems and preserve biodiversity. Eastern Wolves, a species at risk in Canada, are centralized in Algonquin Provincial Park and their ability to disperse and establish themselves elsewhere is limited by human‐caused mortality associated with hunting, trapping and vehicle collisions. Here, we refine our understanding of Eastern Wolf distribution and provide the first estimates of their effective population size. Location Southern Ontario and Gatineau Quebec. Methods We used non‐invasive samples, as well as blood samples archived from other research projects, collected between 2010 and 2014 to generate autosomal microsatellite genotypes at 12 loci for 98 Canis individuals. We utilized Bayesian and multivariate clustering analyses to identify Eastern Wolves in regions that were previously unsampled. Both linkage disequilibrium and temporal approaches were used to estimate effective population size of Eastern Wolves. Results Assignment tests identified 34 individuals as Eastern Wolves, primarily in or near two provincial parks: Killarney and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands. Eastern Coyotes were identified in Bon Echo Provincial Park, Frontenac Provincial Park and Gatineau Park, whereas many of the samples were admixed among the different Canis types. Effective population size ( N e ) estimates ranged from 24.3 to 122.1 with a harmonic mean of 45.6. Main conclusions The identification of Eastern Wolves in the regions of Killarney and Queen Elizabeth II Wildlands Provincial Parks extends the range of Eastern Wolves north of the French River and southward into previously unidentified regions. The effective population size is low and raises concerns for long‐term persistence of this threatened carnivore; estimates are dangerously close to critical values recommended for short‐term persistence. These results provide important information for upcoming Eastern Wolf recovery plans associated with federal and provincial endangered species legislation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".