Winter warming effects on overwinter survival, energy use, and spring emergence of <i>Cerotoma trifurcata</i> (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Bean leaf beetle Cerotoma trifurcata (Förster) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is a pest of soybean in the U.S.A. and is becoming a concern in Canada. The projected increase in winter temperatures under climate change could affect overwinter survival, timing of spring emergence and, ultimately, the severity of this pest. We assessed the potential effects of warmer winters in field experiments performed in three consecutive years. Three warming levels were applied: (i) heated approximately 4 °C above ambient; (ii) unheated with snow cover left intact; and (iii) unheated with snow cover removed. Survival and date of emergence were assessed in all years, and beetle lipid content was analyzed in 1 year to determine rates of energy use. Overwinter survival was 6.5–14.5% among years. Winter warming inconsistently affected overwinter survival: increasing survival in one winter, decreasing survival in the warmest winter and having no effect in one winter. Beetles that received supplemental winter warming emerged approximately 2 weeks earlier in spring, and lipid content did not differ among treatment groups. Earlier spring emergence may allow for the production of an additional generation per year of C. trifurcata under future climate change. However, further experiments are required to establish the relationship between overwinter survival and subsequent beetle population growth to determine potential pest status and best management practices under future climate conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".