Multi-Isotopic (δ2H, δ13C, δ15N) Tracing of Molt Origin for Red-Winged Blackbirds Associated with Agro-Ecosystems
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyzed stable-hydrogen (δ2H), carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ 15N) isotope ratios in feathers to better understand the molt origin and food habits of Red-winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) near sunflower production in the Upper Midwest and rice production in the Mid-South of the United States. Outer primary feathers were used from 661 after-second-year (ASY) male blackbirds collected in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota (spring collection), and Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Texas (winter collection). The best-fit model indicated that the combination of feather δ2H, δ13C and δ15N best predicted the state of sample collections and thus supported the use of this approach for tracing molt origins in Red-winged Blackbirds. When considering only birds collected in spring, 56% of birds were classified to their collection state on the basis of δ2H and δ13C alone. We then developed feather isoscapes for δ13C based upon these data and for δ2H based upon continental patterns of δ2H in precipitation. We used 81 birds collected at the ten independent sites for model validation. The spatially-explicit assignment of these 81 birds to the δ2H isoscape resulted in relatively high rates (~77%) of accurate assignment to collection states. We also modeled the spatial extent of C3 (e.g. rice, sunflower) and C4 (corn, millet, sorghum) agricultural crops grown throughout the Upper Midwest and Mid-South United States to predict the relative use of C3- versus C4-based foodwebs among sampled blackbirds. Estimates of C3 inputs to diet ranged from 50% in Arkansas to 27% in Minnesota. As a novel contribution to blackbird conservation and management, we demonstrate how such feather isoscapes can be used to predict the molt origin and interstate movements of migratory blackbirds for subsequent investigations of breeding biology (e.g. sex-specific philopatry), agricultural depredation, feeding ecology, physiology of migration and sensitivity to environmental change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".