External Validation of the <scp>PECARN</scp> Head Trauma Prediction Rules in Japan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) head trauma prediction rules are used to assist computed tomography (CT) decision-making for children with minor head trauma. Although the PECARN rules have been validated in North America and Europe, they have not yet been validated in Asia. In Japan, there are no clinical decision rules for children with minor head trauma. The rate of head CT for children with minor head trauma in Japan is high since CT is widely accessible across the country. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the PECARN rules for identifying clinically important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBI) in children with minor head trauma in Japan. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study at a tertiary care pediatric hospital in Japan (30,000 patients/year). We enrolled all children younger than 18 years with minor head trauma (Glasgow Coma Scale ≥ 14) who presented to the emergency department within 24 hours of their injury between January and December 2013. We retrospectively classified the children into three risk categories according to the PECARN rules. The PECARN rules were considered negative when children were classified into the very-low-risk category. The primary outcome was considered positive when a child had ciTBI defined as head injury resulting in death, neurosurgery, intubation for > 24 hours, or hospital admission ≥ 2 nights with evidence of TBI on CT. RESULTS: Among 2,208 children included in the study, 24 (1.1%) had ciTBI. Sensitivities and specificities of the PECARN rules to predict ciTBI were 85.7% (12/14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 57.2 to 98.2) and 73.5% (572/778; 95% CI = 70.3 to 76.6), respectively, for children < 2 years old, and 100% (10/10; 95% CI = 58.7 to 100) and 73.5% (1033/1406; 95% CI = 71.0 to 75.7) for children ≥ 2 years old, respectively. There were 10 cases of physically abused children < 2 years old, and six (60%) of them had ciTBI. Also, two cases of physically abused children with ciTBI were classified as very low risk. If we did not include physically abused children, the sensitivity of the PECARN rule for children < 2 years old improved from 85.7% to 100% (8/8). CONCLUSIONS: The PECARN rules were less sensitive for physically abused children, although the rules showed excellent applicability for the cohort without physical abuse. Thoughtful consideration may be needed for cases of nonaccidental trauma. Further prospective studies are required to verify the applicability of the PECARN rules for children with minor head trauma in Japan.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".