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Record W2564883829

Integrating Long-Term Care into a Community-Based Continuum: Shifting from "Beds" to "Places"

2016· article· en· W2564883829 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
A. Paul Williams, Janet Lum, Frances Morton-Chang, Kerry Kuluski, Allie Peckham, Natalie Warrick, Alvin Ying

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicMigration, Aging, and Tourism Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsLong-term careOddsHealth carePopulationPopulation ageingBusinessAcute careGerontologyMedicineNursingEconomic growthEnvironmental healthEconomicsLogistic regression
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

To address the growing long-term needs of Canada's aging population, governments should expand community-based care instead of simply increasing the number of residential care beds.Pour repondre aux besoins grandissants de sa population vieillissante en matiere de soins de longue duree, le Canada doit developper les services de soins communautaires au lieu d'ajouter simplement des lits en etablissement.In Ontario, as in other jurisdictions nationally and internationally, health policy-makers face converging challenges. On the demand side is an aging population and the related shift from illness that can be cured on an episodic basis to chronic health and social needs that must be managed over the longer term (IHME 2013). On the supply side are increasingly stretched hospital-based health care systems. While recent data show that population aging is not in itself a major health care cost driver (CIHI 2014b), these systems are poorly equipped to respond to chronic care needs. As a consequence, they struggle with persistent problems of inappropriate and costly utilization. In Ontario, more than a decade of concerted effort to achieve transformative change and bend the cost curve has produced little reduction in the number of hospital beds occupied by individuals who no longer require hospital care but cannot be discharged because of a lack of community-based care. These individuals, described as alternative level of care (ALC) patients, are disproportionately older and may actually be harmed by lengthy hospital stays, increasing their odds of permanent placement in residential long-term care (LTC) (Walker 2011).These system challenges are complicated by the continuing decline in informal caregiving caused by the weakening of the nuclear family, women's growing participation in paid employment, and, particularly in rural areas, the out-migration of young adults (and potential caregivers) who are following education and jobs to cities (Fast 2015; Williams, Peckham, Kuluski, Lum, Warrick et al. 2015; Williams, Peckham, Kuluski, Lum, Morton-Chang et al. 2015). Given that unpaid family, friends and neighbours provide an estimated 70 to 90 percent of the everyday care that older persons require to remain at home, in the coming years there will be even greater demand placed on formal care systems, which will potentially undermine their sustainability (McNeil and Hunter 2014; Peckham et al. 2014; Peckham, Williams and Neysmith 2014; Warrick et al. 2014; Williams, Peckham, Kuluski, Lum, Warrick et al. 2015; Williams, Peckham, Kuluski, Lum, Morton-Chang et al. 2015).How should health care policy-makers respond? The conventional wisdom is that the growing number of older persons (as well as children with complex medical needs and adults with disabilities who are also aging) will necessitate a proportional increase in the supply of LTC beds in nursing homes and homes for the aged. Indeed, lengthy wait times for LTC in Ontario have been cited as a reason why hospitals cannot discharge patients more quickly (OLTCA 2012).An alternative view, backed by growing evidence and analysis, is that the real problem is a lack of community-based care. As insightful observers in Ontario and elsewhere have commented, older persons overwhelmingly wish to age at home. Nevertheless, because community-based care is fragmented and inadequate, care pathways too often lead to hospitals and residential LTC (Donner 2015; Drummond 2012; McNeil and Hunter 2014; Ontario Seniors' Secretariat 2013; Sinha 2012; Walker 2011).In this study, we consider the case of Ontario, Canada's second-largest and most populous province. Because residential LTC and home and community care (HC Fierlbeck 2011; Marchildon 2013). …

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How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesScience and technology studies
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Qualitative · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.656
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0020.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.021
GPT teacher head0.315
Teacher spread0.294 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designQualitative
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations23
Published2016
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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