PWE-042 20 year follow up of british twin pairs with inflammatory bowel disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction IBD twin studies have shown similar disease phenotype within concordant pairs. Longitudinal follow up suggests pairs with CD remain concordant for location whereas twins with UC diverge.1This study is a retrospective longitudinal analysis of UK twin pairs with IBD. Method The UK IBD Twin and Multiplex Registry was searched for twin pairs who took part in a previous twin study. Data from 1994 and 2014 was reviewed. The following were analysed: zygosity, concordance, Montreal classification, admissions, surgical history. Results Demographics: N=94 twin pairs. UC:CD 48:46. Mean age 59. Pair Concordance: 3 previously discordant pairs became concordant. The mean time between diagnosis was 9.1 years. Montreal Classification: Concordant Pairs: There were no mixed CD:UC pairs. Of the 17 concordant pairs, 10 had complete information from both twins in both datasets. IBD: A was identical in 6/12 (50%) concordant pairs. CD: L was identical in 3/6 (50%) pairs in both 1994 and 2014. B was only available from 2014, and was identical in 3/6 (50%) pairs. P was identical in 2/5 (40%) twins in 1994 and 3/7 (43%) twins in 2014. UC: A was identical in 3/4 pairs (74%). L was identical in 4/4 (100%) pairs in 1994 and 2014. All IBD sufferers: UC: Disease classified as proctitis decreased from 1994 to 2014 (30.4% vs 17.9%), with a corresponding increase in pancolitis (41.1% vs 50%). CD: Cases classified as L3 increased from 6/52 (11.5%) to 22/53 (41.5%). Presence of perianal disease also increased (9.6% vs 23.1%). Extraluminal manifestations increased from 4/109 (3.7%) to 13/112 (11.6%). Surgery: Concordant pairs:Concordant twin pairs were concordant for history of previous surgery in 9/12 (75%) pairs in 1994 and 7/14 (50%) pairs in 2014. All IBD: In 1994 32/109 (29.4%) IBD sufferers had undergone surgery, increasing to 52/112 (49.1%) in 2014. Admission: Concordant pairs:Concordant twins were concordant for history of admission in 10/14 (71.4%) pairs in 1994 and 10/15 (66.7%) pairs in 2014. All IBD: 46/109 (42.2%) IBD sufferers had at least one admission in 1994; this increased to 76/112 (67.9%) in 2014. Conclusion Pair concordance of this cohort supports that heritability of CD is greater than UC. Within concordant pairs with CD, disease location is less correlated than in other cohorts. Conversely, concordant pairs within UC were more similar and converged over time. Sample size limited analysis. Disease progressed over time. Disclosure of interest None Declared. Reference Halfvarson, et al. Longitudinal concordance for clinical characteristics in a Swedish-Danish twin population. IBD 2007
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".