Multi-year surface velocities and sea-level rise contribution of the Basin-3 and Basin-2 surges, Austfonna, Svalbard
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Basin-3, the largest outlet basin of the Austfonna ice cap, started to surge in autumn 2012. A maximum velocity of 18.8 m d-1 was found in December 2012 / January 2013. Here we present a time series of area wide velocity fields from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) offset tracking and Global Positioning System (GPS) data in the aftermath of the velocity maximum, extending the previously published data from May 2013 to July 2016. We find that terminus velocity slowed down by ~ 50 % until spring 2014, whereas the upper parts of the basin continued to speed-up and reached their maximum only in summer 2014. Until the date of writing (July 2016), Basin-3 maintained high velocity with maxima between 8.9–11.4 m d-1. Summer speed-ups were superimposed even on the otherwise fast surge motion. The total frontal ablation Af over the period 19 April 2012 to 26 July 2016 was calculated to 22.2 ± 8.1 Gt (5.2 ± 1.9 Gt yr-1) from the ice mass flux qfg = 33.2 ± 11.5 Gt (7.8 ± 2.7 Gt yr-1) and the terminus mass change qt = 11.0 ± 3.4 Gt (2.6 ± 0.8 Gt yr-1). Additional advance of the terminus led to a total sea-level rise equivalent of 31.3 ± 11.2 Gt (7.3 ± 2.6 Gt yr-1). This rate of frontal ablation roughly equals previous estimates of both the calving flux and total mass loss from the entire archipelago, resulting in a doubling of the current ice-mass loss from Svalbard. In vicinity of Basin-3, we also observe a terminus advance and a speed-up of the northern part of Basin-2 starting in autumn 2014, with surface velocity reaching 8.71 m d-1 in August 2015. The related ice mass loss of Basin-2 between 20 June 2015 and 26 July 2016 amounts to 0.8 Gt (min: 0.3 Gt, max: 1.6 Gt). Accounting also for the replacement of ocean water, we find a total sea-level rise equivalent of 1.1 Gt (min: 0.5 Gt, max: 2.1 Gt).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".