Similar birth-cohort patterns in Crohn’s disease and multiple sclerosis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The etiology of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis is unknown. Genetic susceptibility and environmental factors are believed to play a role in both diseases. OBJECTIVES: To compare the long-term time trends of the two diseases and thus gain insight about their etiology. METHODS: We analyzed mortality data of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis from Canada, England, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United States during the past 60 years. Age-period-cohort (APC) analyses based on logit models served to disentangle the separate influences of age, period, and cohort effects on the overall time trends. RESULTS: The long-term time trends of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis have been shaped by strikingly similar birth-cohort patterns. In both diseases alike, mortality increased in all generations born prior to 1910. It peaked among generations born between 1910 and 1930 and then declined in all subsequent generations. Similar birth-cohort patterns of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis were found in each country analyzed separately. CONCLUSION: The birth-cohort patterns indicate that the development of Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis is influenced by exposure to environmental risk factors during an early period of life. These environmental risk factors may be similar or even identical in Crohn's disease and multiple sclerosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".