Revisiting global fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of ethane
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Recent measurements over the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the long‐term decline in the atmospheric burden of ethane (C 2 H 6 ) has ended and the abundance increased dramatically between 2010 and 2014. The rise in C 2 H 6 atmospheric abundances has been attributed to oil and natural gas extraction in North America. Existing global C 2 H 6 emission inventories are based on outdated activity maps that do not account for current oil and natural gas exploitation regions. We present an updated global C 2 H 6 emission inventory based on 2010 satellite‐derived CH 4 fluxes with adjusted C 2 H 6 emissions over the U.S. from the National Emission Inventory (NEI 2011). We contrast our global 2010 C 2 H 6 emission inventory with one developed for 2001. The C 2 H 6 difference between global anthropogenic emissions is subtle (7.9 versus 7.2 Tg yr −1 ), but the spatial distribution of the emissions is distinct. In the 2010 C 2 H 6 inventory, fossil fuel sources in the Northern Hemisphere represent half of global C 2 H 6 emissions and 95% of global fossil fuel emissions. Over the U.S., unadjusted NEI 2011 C 2 H 6 emissions produce mixing ratios that are 14–50% of those observed by aircraft observations (2008–2014). When the NEI 2011 C 2 H 6 emission totals are scaled by a factor of 1.4, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chem model largely reproduces a regional suite of observations, with the exception of the central U.S., where it continues to underpredict observed mixing ratios in the lower troposphere. We estimate monthly mean contributions of fossil fuel C 2 H 6 emissions to ozone and peroxyacetyl nitrate surface mixing ratios over North America of ~1% and ~8%, respectively.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".