P721 A switch in the prevalence ratio of Crohn's disease vs. ulcerative colitis in Israel between 2003 and 2015 – a report from the epi-IIRN group
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Crohn's disease (CD) has been considered a condition limited mostly to westernized countries, while ulcerative colitis (UC) may be more common in some developing countries. We aimed to utilize data from all four Israeli health maintenance organizations (HMOs), covering 98% of the Israeli population, to determine population-based epidemiological trends of CD and UC. Methods: IBD patients were identified from 2003 (the first year of computerization in the HMOs) until 2015 and differentiated as CD or UC patients using algorithms validated to accurately identify cases from within the dataset (case ascertainment accuracy: 99% and 94%, respectively). Standardized prevalence per 100,000 population per year were derived from the Israeli National Insurance Institute. Results: At the end of 2015, a total of 38,291 IBD patients were residing in Israel, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 459/100,000 (0.46%), double the prevalence rate 12 years earlier (0.23%). UC was more prevalent than CD until 2010 after which CD became more common, and this difference has increased each year (CD/UC: 2003- 6306/7665 (p<0.0001), 2010 – 14628/14427 (p=0.1), 2015 – 20196/17810 (p<0.0001) (Figure 1)). Patients in the 25–34 years and 35–44 years age groups contributed most to the upsurge in CD rates, suggesting a link to environmental and economic changes in Israel during childhood years. Figure 1. IBD prevalence trends in Israel between 2003 and 2015. Conclusions: Israeli IBD prevalence is the third highest in the world, and has nearly doubled in the past decade. The increased preponderance of CD over UC has occurred in parallel with an increase in the economic state of Israel; this possible link requires further study. This study was supported by a grant from the Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".