Seasonal Influence on the Risk of Relapse at a Rise of Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibodies in Vasculitis Patients with Renal Involvement
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for a relapse at the time of an increase in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in patients with renal ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV). METHODS: All patients between January 2000 and November 2011 with renal AAV having an ANCA rise during remission were included. Differences in time to relapse since the ANCA rise were assessed using a Cox regression model. The level of 25-hydroxy Vitamin D (25(OH)D) was assessed at the ANCA rise and at a subsequent relapse or time-matched during remission. RESULTS: Sixty patients had an ANCA rise, of whom 36 patients relapsed. Three risk factors were associated with a relapse at the time of the ANCA increase: previous disease activity not treated with cyclophosphamide or rituximab (HR 3.48, 95% CI 1.60-7.59), an ANCA rise during the fall season (HR 4.37, 95% CI 1.60-11.90), and an extended ANCA rise (HR 3.57, 95% CI 1.50-8.48). Levels of 25(OH)D significantly decreased during followup in relapsing patients, but not in patients who remained in remission (difference -6.3 ± 14.4, p = 0.017 vs 2.7 ± 16.3, p = 0.430). CONCLUSION: ANCA rises occurring during the fall season are more frequently followed by a relapse than ANCA rises occurring during other seasons. Although it is tempting to speculate that decreasing Vitamin D levels following the ANCA rise can be held responsible for the subsequent relapse, this remains to be determined.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".