Rapid Emergence of a New Clone Impacts the Population at Risk and Increases the Incidence of Type emm89 Group A Streptococcus Invasive Disease
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Invasive group A Streptococcus (iGAS) disease caused by type emm89 strains has been increasing worldwide, driven by the emergence of an epidemic clonal variant (clade 3 emm89). The clinical characteristics of patients with emm89 iGAS disease, and in particular with clade 3 emm89 iGAS disease, are poorly described. Methods We used population-based iGAS surveillance data collected in metropolitan Toronto, Ontario, Canada during the period 2000–2014. We sequenced the genomes of 105 emm89 isolates representing all emm89 iGAS disease cases in the area during the period and 138 temporally matched emm89 iGAS isolates collected elsewhere in Ontario. Results Clades 1 and 2 and clade O, a newly discovered emm89 genetic variant, caused most cases of emm89 iGAS disease in metropolitan Toronto before 2008. After rapid emergence of new clade 3, previously circulating clades were purged from the population and the incidence of emm89 iGAS disease significantly increased from 0.14 per 100000 in 2000–2007 to 0.22 per 100000 in 2008–2014. Overall, emm89 organisms caused significantly more arthritis but less necrotizing fasciitis than strains of the more common type emm1. Other clinical presentations were soft tissue and severe respiratory tract infections. Clinical outcomes did not differ significantly between emm89 clades overall. However, clade 3 emm89 iGAS disease was more common in youth and middle-aged individuals. Conclusions The rapid shift in emm89 iGAS strain genetics in metropolitan Toronto has resulted in a significant increase in the incidence of emm89 iGAS disease, with noticeably higher rates of clade 3 disease in younger patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".